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“Data analyst Hao Shen is following his growing suspicion. “We thought that more modern photovoltaic systems would be more reliable and efficient than those commissioned 10 years ago.” Shen is the head of data products at data analytics and climate insurance firm kWh-Analytics.

The company has compiled performance data from the portfolios of 15 of the 20 largest system operators in the United States. It then compared the revenue reports prepared before the plants went online and the actual production data. That comparison, covering 30% of ground-mounted plants in the United States, showed “just the opposite is true,” Shen says. The discrepancy between predictions and real output has increased.”